Where is the Market?
June 6, 2008 – 8:09 amIt’s June 2008 in the great Pacific Northwest and raining cats and dogs and I beleive everyone is in a funk. The Wall Street Journal reoprted May 6th 2008 that the Housing Crisis is over and we are on our way up. With that being said we have a lot of inventory to burn through to reach that balance between supply and demand and the big question is how long will it take to get there? Currently we have around 6500 finished recorded new lots with about 1500 having new homes built on them and 4000 sitting vacant. Snohomish County new home sales are averaging about 200 per month so at this rate we have a 3 year supply; these numbers are down by about two thirds from our peak at the end of 2005. Many builders are in need to move their inventory because the interest from the bank is eating into their bottom line and developers need to sell their lots as well. We have seen signifigant price drops in the housing market and it is a buyers market with lots of deals and negotiating power. The Snohomish County lot sales on the other hand have not decreased in price as much and sales are at a basic stand still.
In Snohomish County in 2006 we sold 1980 residential building lots and in 2007 we sold 1874 building lots; for the first quarter of 2008 we have sold 47 building lots a decrease of 94.5% 1 year ago. The bottom line is we need to sell off our housing inventory in order to see some lot sales; developers are still asking yesterdays price because they have nothing tangible to compare prices to. The pipeline is also full with roughly 16,000 lots being processed in Snohomish County for a total of 602 plats. All of these plats probably won’t make it through because they were purchased at too high of a price to be in line with todays numbers even though were not sure where that’s at.
The subprime lender meltdown has now put FHA financing back on top and with the buyer assistance programs it could be even better than before. As the lenders get their acts back together and the Snohomish County job market continues to get better we will see more people move into this area. The slow climb out of the slump will help to stablize the market and get us back into perspective as this market correction starts the next cycle.







